Source: Charles Schwab, data from 10/5 – 10/9

Weekly Market Minute

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🧭 This Week In the Markets

Image Source: Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

Fed Officials See More Tightening Ahead

Federal Reserve officials expect another interest rate increase before the end of 2026, according to minutes from the Fed’s September meeting. Although officials left the timing of the next move unclear, most believe another rate increase will be warranted this year as inflation remains above target and the labor market continues to show strength.

The minutes showed that officials remain concerned that inflation could prove persistent, even as recent data has been somewhat more encouraging. August headline PCE inflation was 3.4%, compared with 3.0% for core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices. At the same time, Treasury yields have climbed to levels not seen since 2002, reflecting expectations for higher rates, solid economic growth, and increased investment tied to artificial intelligence. Although the Fed appears inclined to raise rates again this year, officials emphasized that future decisions will remain dependent on incoming economic data.

Starbucks Reportedly Explores Acquisition of Chipotle

Starbucks has reportedly explored acquiring Chipotle Mexican Grill in what could become the largest restaurant takeover in history. The potential deal would reunite Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol with the burrito chain he previously led and could create opportunities for international expansion, cost savings, and a combined customer loyalty program. Following the initial report, Chipotle shares rose approximately 7%, while Starbucks shares declined roughly 4%.

However, investors remain divided over whether the acquisition would benefit either company. Starbucks is still navigating an expensive turnaround, and acquiring Chipotle, valued at approximately $42 billion, could significantly increase its debt and distract management from improving its core business. Analysts have also raised concerns about integration challenges and the potential impact on earnings. No formal offer has been announced, and analysts expect the likelihood of a completed deal to be low.

🏢 Corporate Earnings

• PepsiCo (PEP) surpassed quarterly earnings expectations, reporting earnings per share of $2.34 on revenue of $25.27 billion compared with estimates of $2.29 per share and $24.96 billion. These results were supported by international growth as its North American business continues to perform below expectations.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) fell short of third-quarter expectations, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $1.72 on adjusted revenue of $17.59 billion compared with estimates of $1.75 per share and $17.67 billion. The earnings miss was largely driven by surging fuel costs, which weighed on profitability despite strong travel demand and higher ticket prices.

📊 Sector Performance

5-day closing price ($) and change (%)

Source: Select Sector SPDRs, data based on the Sector SPDR ETFs as of 10/9

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📰 Dollars & Sense: This Week’s Rapid Read

STAX: Generational Trends A Silent Record
The Schwab Trading Activity Index™, which tracks client activity to gauge sentiment, reversed August’s decline in September as the Silent Generation took a bullish approach.

Source: Charles Schwab

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Sources: CNBC, CNBC
Corporate Earnings: PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines

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