Weekly Market Minute August 1, 2026 Fed Holds Steady, but Inflation Debate Intensifies

Weekly Market Minute August 1, 2026: Fed Holds Steady, but Inflation Debate Intensifies

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

S&P 500 7,489.72
▲ +1.05%
NASDAQ 25,373.85
▲ +1.59%
DJIA 52,485.03
▲ +1.04%

Source: Charles Schwab, data from 7/27 – 7/31

Weekly Market Minute

“Long-term thinking is impossible without patience.”
— Shane Parrish


🧭 This Week In the Markets

Fed Holds Steady, but Inflation Debate Intensifies
Image Source: Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

Fed Holds Steady, but Inflation Debate Intensifies

The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, though the unusually large number of dissenting votes highlighted growing concern within the Committee that inflation remains too persistent. The dissenting officials favored an immediate 25-basis-point rate increase, reflecting concerns over ongoing inflationary pressures fueled by tariffs, elevated energy prices, and resilient economic growth. In its policy statement, the Fed again described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace with a stable labor market while reaffirming its commitment to restoring price stability. Chairman Kevin Warsh continued his preference for a data-dependent approach, offering little forward guidance on future policy actions. While markets widely expected rates to remain unchanged at this meeting, the hawkish vote split reinforces expectations that further policy tightening remains possible if inflation does not continue to move toward the Fed’s 2% target.


Big Tech Earnings Highlight an AI Divide

This week’s Big Tech earnings further highlighted that investors are becoming increasingly selective in how they evaluate artificial intelligence investments. Microsoft emerged as the clear leader following a standout earnings report, delivering stronger than expected Azure cloud growth and continued momentum in Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption. The results reinforced that the company’s years of substantial AI infrastructure investment are beginning to generate meaningful financial returns, fueling one of Microsoft’s strongest single-day stock performances in years. Amazon also impressed investors as Amazon Web Services delivered its fastest growth since 2021, signaling that enterprise demand for AI infrastructure remains robust and helping validate the company’s continued investment in expanding its cloud capabilities.

Apple, meanwhile, moved lower despite reporting better than expected quarterly earnings and iPhone sales, as investors focused on weaker forward guidance driven by memory shortages, chip supply constraints, and expectations for slower near-term growth. Meta also came under pressure after issuing disappointing revenue guidance and reporting a sharp decline in free cash flow as elevated AI spending continued to weigh on profitability. Taken together, this earnings season reinforced a clear market theme: investors are rewarding companies that can demonstrate tangible returns from their AI investments while becoming less patient with businesses where spending continues to outpace visible financial results.


🏢 Corporate Earnings

  • Microsoft (MSFT) beat fiscal fourth-quarter expectations, reporting earnings per share of $4.74 on revenue of $90.0 billion compared to estimates of $4.24 and $87.6 billion, as the intelligent cloud segment grew 31.6% year-over-year.
  • Meta Platforms (META) missed second-quarter earnings expectations, reporting earnings per share of $6.18 on revenue of $60.8 billion compared with estimates of $7.22 and $60.2 billion, while its third-quarter revenue guidance of $61 billion to $64 billion fell short of Wall Street expectations.
  • Apple (AAPL) reported fiscal third-quarter results above expectations, with earnings per share of $1.91 on $109.4 billion of revenue compared to estimates of $1.89 and $108.7 billion, while forward guidance came in below expectations as supply constraints increase chip costs.
  • Amazon (AMZN) surpassed second-quarter expectations, reporting earnings per share of $1.97 on revenue of $200.6 billion compared with estimates of $1.82 and $196.5 billion, driven by 37% growth in AWS.
  • ExxonMobil (XOM) topped expectations, with fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.71 on $82.3 billion in revenue compared to estimates of $1.68 and $81.4 billion, while oil production reached 4.7 million barrels per day, the highest level in more than 40 years.

📊 Sector Performance

5-day closing price ($) and change (%)

S&P 500 Sectors Performance 5-day ending July 31, 2026
Source: Select Sector SPDRs, data based on the Sector SPDR ETFs as of 7/31


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Sources: CNBC, CNBC, CNBC
Corporate Earnings: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, Amazon, ExxonMobil

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